The supreme scale and vast expanse of the Universe is awe inspiring. Contemplation of its grandeur has been described as a type of scientific spiritualism; broadening the mind’s horizons in a vain attempt to grasp our place amongst such awesome magnitude. Containing some 200 billion stars (or 400 billion, depending on whom you ask), our relatively humble home in the Milky Way is but one of billions of other such homes for other countless billions of stars. Likewise, our small blue dot of a planet is but one of possible billions of similar planets spread throughout the Universe.
To think that we are alone in such a vast expanse of space is not only unlikely, but irrational. For eons, human egocentricism has blinkered ideology and spirituality. Our belief systems place humanity upon a pedestal, indicating implicitly that we are alone and incredibly unique. The most salient of which is the ‘Almagest’; Ptolemy’s Earth-centred view of the Universe.
While we may be unique, the tendency of belief systems to invoke meaning in our continued existence leaves no place for humility. The result of this human focussed Universe is one where our race arrogantly fosters its own importance. Consequently, the majority of the populace has little or no concern in cosmic contemplation, nor an appreciation of truly objective thought with the realisation that Earth and our intelligent civilisation does not give sole definition to the cosmos. The Universe will continue to exist as it always have whether we are around or not.
But to do otherwise would spell certain doom for our civilisation, and it is easy to see why humans have placed so much importance upon themselves in the grand scheme of things. The Earth is home to just one intelligent species, namely us. If the Neanderthals had survived, it surely would have been a different story (in terms of the composition of social groups). Groups seem to unite against common foes, therefore a planet with two or more intelligent species would distinguish less within themselves, and more between. Given the situation we find ourselves in as the undisputed lords of this planet, it is no wonder we attach such special significance to ourselves as a species (and to discrediting the idea that we are not alone in the Universe).
It seems as if humanity needs their self-esteem bolstered when faced with the harsh reality that our existence is trivial when compared to the likelihood of other forms of life and the grandeur of the Universe at large. Terror Management Theory is but one psychological hypothesis as to why this may be the case. The main postulate of this theory is that our mortality is the most salient factor throughout life. A tension is created because on the one hand, death is inevitable, and on the other, we are intimately aware of its approach yet desperately try to minimise its effects on our lives. Thus it is proposed that humanity attempts to minimise the terror associated with impending death through cultural and spiritual beliefs (afterlife, the notion of mind/body duality – the soul continues on after death). TMT puts an additional spin on the situation by suggesting cultural world-views, and the tendency for people to protect these values at all costs (reaffirming cultural beliefs by persecuting the views of others reduces the tension produced by death).
While the empirical validity of TMT is questionable (experimental evidence is decidedly lacking), human belief systems do express an arrogance that prevents a more holistic system from emerging. The Ptolemic view dominated scientific inquiry during the middle ages, most likely due to its adoption by the church. Having the Earth as the centre of the Universe coincided nicely with theological beliefs that humanity is the sole creation of god. It may also have improved the ‘scientific’ standing of theology in that it was apparently supported by theory. What the scholars of this period failed to realise was the principle of Occam’s Razor, that being the simpler the theory the better (if it still explains the same observations). The overly complicated Ptolemic system could explain the orbit of planetary bodies, at the expense of simplicity (via the addition of epicycles to explain the anomalous motion of planets).
Modern cosmology has thankfully overthrown such models, however the ideology remains. Perhaps hampered and weighed down by daily activities, people simply do not have the time to consider an existence outside of their own immediate experience. From an evolutionary perspective, an individual would risk death if thought processes were wasted on external contemplation, rather than a selfish and immediate satisfaction of biological needs. Now that society has progressed to a point where time can be spent on intellectual pursuits, it makes sense that outmoded beliefs regarding our standing in the Universe should be rectified.
But just how likely is the possibility of life elsewhere? Science-fiction has long been an inspiration in this regard, its tales of Martian invaders striking terror into generations of children. The first directed empirical venture in this area came about with the SETI conference at Green Bank, West Virginia in 1961. At this conference, not only were the efforts of radio-astronomers to detect foreign signals discussed in detail, but one particular formulation was also put forward. Known as the Drake Equation, it was aimed at quantifying and humanising the very large numbers that are thrown about when discussing intergalactic probabilities.
Basically the equation takes a series of values thought to contribute to the likelihood of intelligent life evolving, multiplying the probabilities together and outputting a single number; the projected number of intelligent civilisations in the galaxy. Of course, the majority of the numbers used are little more than educated guesses. However, even with conservative values, this number is above 1. Promising stuff.
Fortunately, with each astronomical advance these numbers are further refined, giving a (hopefully) more accurate picture of reality. The SETI project may have even found the first extra-terrestrial signal in 1977. Dubbed the ‘Wow!’ signal (based on the researcher’s margin comments on the printout sheet), this burst of activity bore all the hallmarks of artificial origin. Sadly, this result has not been replicated despite numerous attempts.
All hope is not lost. SETI has received a revitalising injection of funds from none other than Microsoft’s Paul Allen, as well as the immensely popular SETI@Home initiative which utilises distributed network technology to sort through the copious amounts of generated data. Opponents to SETI form two main camps; those whom believe it is a waste of funds better spent on more Earthly concerns (a valid point) and those whom perceive SETI as dangerous to our continued existence. The latter point is certainly plausible (albeit unlikely). The counter claim in this instance is that if such a civilisation did exist and was sufficiently advanced to travel intergalactic distances, the last thing on their mind would be the annihilation of our insignificant species.
The notion of Star Trek’s ‘Prime Directive’ seems the most likely situation to have unfolded thus far. Extra-terrestrial civilisations would most likely seek a policy of non-interference with our meager planet, perhaps actively disguising their transmissions in an attempt to hide their activity and prevent ‘cultural contamination’.
Now all we need is for the faster-than-light barrier to be crossed and the Vulcans will welcome us into the galactic society.
Jotlab 
13 comments
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4 May, 2008 at 3:27 pm
Dennis Quine
V:
I continue to be impressed by how much your energy matches my own from 50 years ago. Things for which I have now lost my enthusiasm (after half a century of waiting and studying), you still “keep the faith”.
One thing your latest essay neglects to mention is the extensive array of research projects now under way (both govt-sponsored and amateur) to try to find something (anything!) alive outside the earth. NASA and ESA have an aggressive program of orbiters and landers working Mars, and follow-ons to Casini (now at Saturn) are looking at dropping into the oceans of Europa to see if anything is growing there. UFO enthusiasts are searching (SETA: search for extraterrestrial artifacts) the earth and solar system to see if any artifacts might have been left by earlier visitors, and (as you do mention) the Paul Allen Telescope is nearing completion in Northern California, a major improvement in SETC instrumentation. These are exciting times for anyone interested in exploration beyond earth.
However, in spite of the vast accumulation of observations and reports, we still cannot “close the deal” and make a case that convinces skeptics that we are being visited. UFOlogy continues to be a fringe study, and after 50 years of waiting for the definitive observations to show up, I have started just giving my UFO library away. Fortunately my #1 son wants it, so it is still in one piece. Still waiting.
Searches among the stars for communications of ETs have similarly come up dry. The “WOW” event, because it has never been located again, gets relegated to the pile of strange observation that we never quite know what to do with. Follow-up searches in the same part of the sky that the WOW energy appears to have come from, including one in 2004, have yielded nothing.
Sky surveys of every star out to about 200 light years (ref the Scientific American article from a few years back) have yielded nothing. Area searches well beyond that (in range) have also yielded nothing, although the steradian coverage has been spotty. If there is a terrestrial-class or more advanced civilization out there (Kardachev .5 or greater), it isn’t close by. It is, of course, easily argued that the window for listening to RF emissions from an emerging alien society might only be a century long. Then they transition to optical wavelengths for free-space transmissions, and fiber optics for hard-wire comms. Then the accidental transmissions (TVs, radio, etc) close down.
An alien society significantly beyond ours in technological prowess (Kardachev 1-2) might, in fact, be almost silent in the RF band where we now search. Thus some of the searches for laser comms and anomalous IR sources now under way are very interesting.
Jill Tartar, in an article in “The Astronomical Journal” in Jul 2002 went back thru the Drake equation with modern estimates of the various parameters, and arrived at an estimate of N > 10,000 civilizations in this galaxy. Of course, she is one of the main scientists at the SETI Institute, so might be a little biased. Carl Sagan thought there might be as many as 100,000 technological civilizations in the galaxy.
The galaxy is 100,000 light years across, and 25,000 LY thick in the center, however, civilizations (if they exist) are most likely to be found in the spiral arms, not close to the black hole in the galactic center. Too much lethal radiation. So we don’t have a uniform probability of finding stuff, across the whole volume of space representing the Milky Way. If 10,000 indeed is the number, we ought to have one or more ET civilizations well within the range of Aricibo looking along the spiral arms, within a few hundred light years. But we don’t find them, at least not yet. So now what?
Both the UFO and SETI searchers make the argument that we have only been looking for signals/signs for about 50 years, and there is a lot of the galaxy that has yet to be surveyed. I totally agree with that, the searches (for stuff flying around in our own atmosphere) or for something broadcasting across the light years, needs to continue. However, it occurs to me that the wrong people are running the work. We need intelligence officers to take a look at these search problems, assuming the “guys” on the other side don’t want to be found, and are being stealthy and deceptive.
Scientists are trained to study natural phenomena that are not intentionally trying to deceive the researchers. If intelligence is present in the universe, it may indeed be trying to “hunker down” and stay covert, not knowing what is out there (us) that could be dangerous. We may be the only ones stupid enough to broadcast to everyone our presence. Maybe the dumb get devoured, and that’s why there are no broadcasting aliens. Hawking expressed a similar thought about 10 years ago, so I can’t take credit for it.
So maybe a different paradigm is needed here, that of an intelligence operation against a thinking (alien) operative intent on remaining covert. Just a thought. Do not underestimate the power of the dark side of the force to mess up your brain.
Or something.
DHQ
5 May, 2008 at 3:46 am
dave
Re: DHQ’s “…the ‘guys’ on the other side….” This might be literally true.
If you buy into the hypothesis about a galactic habitation zone, or habitation belt, then you have to contend with the possibility that civilizations that exist on the opposite side of the habitation belt are going to be obscured both by distance and the galactic center itself. Especially if there is a black hole at the Milky Way’s center, as many now believe, a civilization located at the opposite siide of the spiral is going to be lost in the noise.
I’m not saying SETI should cease and desist looking at RF. But if we’re serious about searching, there’s got to be another way.
5 May, 2008 at 1:03 pm
Dennis Quine
Dave:
Agreed re “galactic habitation zone”. But if you agree with the Jill Tartar estimate (N > 10,000) then there still should be several thousand techno-civilizations scattered around on our side of the galaxy in locations where the galactic core would not obscure them.
Whether we could hear them or not depends both on what we listen with, and what they are broadcasting with. If it is an Aricibo-class transmitter and receiver, then we should be able to detect them across something less than a quarter of the diameter of the galaxy: maybe 10-20 thousand ly range. If we are just listening to the random noise from TVs, radars, and radio, then the range is much less, maybe a 1000 ly or so. Still, lots of stars in that radius a sphere from earth.
I’m becoming more convinced (what evidence is there here, except that we don’t hear them) that if ailens exist, they are quiet in the RF. Either their technology has moved to lasers (or something else), they have clammed up because there is something really bad out there (Fred Sabehagen’s “Berserkers”), or maybe techno-civilization is much more rare than we think. Lots of societies have come and gone on earth without figuring out Maxwell’s Equations. Without the Greeks, where would we be?
The “something else” you mention, regarding alternative search strategies is the search for laser comms, and the search for astro-engineering projects (anomalous IR radiation) postulated as Kardachev class 1,2,3 manifestations. So far no results there either….
It remains a puzzle: if Tartar is right, where are they?
Thanks for the conversation,
DHQ
6 May, 2008 at 9:17 am
owen59
Just thought I’d let you know that at least one religion, the Baha’i Faith, expects to find life around the Universe. I worry at least as much about scientists as religionists for forming anthrocentric views. Most popular scientific discussion revolves around the human being knowing everything that is needed to be known, and flat earthers and Ptolemicists promoted their ‘obvious’ knowledge just as some evoke their absolute assurance that ‘what they’ve seen so far, is what we’ve got’. By putting All Knowledge in an external situation there is a greater possibility for the humility you speak. In a million years, if humans have made the Universe their own, would it be surprising that they find this Universe is just as far from the center of reality as we are from the center of our own galaxy. Mostly metaphor here, of course.
By the way, a question. If the ‘sounds’ we are looking for have such a long distance to travel, and so, like light we are ‘hearing’ back in time towards the big bang, what are the oldest / earliest life forms that could have reached an appropriate transmission age for us to be detecting it here, today?
6 May, 2008 at 11:04 am
vulcanis
Thanks for joining in Owen.
I must admit I have not heard of the Baha’i faith, however I have read the Wikipedia page now that you have introduced it. Baha’i is described there as a relatively modern faith, beginning in the 19th century. Is it an offshoot from Islam? I found its belief in and support of a world government particularly refreshing.
In regards to your question of ‘hearing back in time’, I am not sure of the answer, there are alot of unknown factors involved. Firstly, science has not completely explained the necessary factors involved in creating life, nor the time periods involved. How did the ‘primordial soup’ of basic chemicals take that great step into multicellular life? The main theories posit a wide range of possible catalysts for this reaction; anything from electrical discharges from lightning to the organisational properties of clay (crystalline molecular structure arranges chemical elements into useful matrices). Secondly, the age of the civilisation would depend upon the distance to the transmission origin. A planet 1000 light years away would thus be at a point 1000 years in the past; by the time the signal reaches us they could be extinct.
Perhaps extra-terrestrial life occurs in waves; intelligent life has not been around very long on our planet compared to the cosmic timeframe involved. Alien civilisations that emerged millions of years earlier could have been born, matured and faded away due to natural calamity or a product of their own progression. Perhaps this is a universal law of the Universe; civilisations can only advance to a certain point before the planet is no longer able to save them. The pace of technological advancement and potential solutions is less than the rate of planetary decay.
Humanity could already be in its twilight years.
9 May, 2008 at 1:10 am
Dennis Quine
V:
Congratulations! You finally hit on an essay topic that stimulates some conversation (besides mine): Search for ET. Unfortunately, most of what we can discuss is pure speculation (“Astrobiology is a science without a subject matter: there is no known instance of life outside the earth”). Not my quip, I read it somewhere.
Re: Gene’s comment about the time delay in detection. You are correct in your analysis that the ET originators of a transmission may not be there any more by the time we get their missive. If the senders are 500 light years away, 500 years will have passed by the time the message arrives in the solar system. A lot of water could have passed under the bridge, and the transmitting society may be gone, or transformed beyond recognition. Based on our history, the transmitting ET society may have transmogrified so much that it no longer even cares about talking to the stars, and will have forgotten it even sent a message out after 500 years.
We are unlikely to hear any RF transmitter further out than 10000 or 20000 LY, thus back in time no more than 20,000 years. Problem is not the power of their transmission, but the limitations of our best RF telescopes (Aricebo, Paul Allen Telescipe, etc.) to detect faint signals. Thus we are not listening back to the Big Bang (13.7 Billion years ago) when looking for ET’s noise making. Just relatively recent stuff. The Murchison Wide-Field Telescope being constructed in Australia (see Sci American article a couple of months ago) will only hear TV/Radio class emissions out to about 200 LY.
As you recall, one of the parameters in the “Drake Equation” is L, the estimated lifetime of a technological civilization. Obviously, non-technological ET civilizations are of little interest (e.g., like the Ancient Egyptians) until we can physically visit them. Only a technological civilization approximately like ours would have discovered electromagnetic communications, and thus be detectable by the basic SETI search protocol. Given our own future uncertainties (e.g., The Singularity, global climate change inducing civilizational collapse, nuclear war, etc.), the issue of how long an ET civilization might remain in a state where it could generate and hear high energy RF radiation is clearly important.
Since all of the parameters in the Drake Equation are just multiplied together, L gets no more or less weighting than the values of the other parameters, except that the variables dealing with astronomical uncertainties (like R, the rate of formation of suitable stars) may be less uncertain today (after decades of research) than L. If you look at analyses like the one I mentioned that Jill Tartar did, it is clear that assumptions about the value of L turn out to drive your conclusions (whether optimistic or pessimistic) about ET search success. The reason is that L has one of the largest uncertainty bands of any of the parameters in the Drake estimate. The astronomically-oriented parameters have much smaller error bars, based on research over the years.
L remains anyone’s guess. We still have only one exemplar (humans), and our L today (the period of time we could listen to or transmit RF radiation across interstellar distances) is certainly less than 100 years. So when L = 10,000, or 100,000 years is hypothesized in a Drake calculation, we are really being optimistic. Do civilizations like ours last a million years, or only 250?
If ET techno-civilizations are rare in the galaxy, then they have to last a long time to have some reasonable probability of overlapping in time with us. If they are plentiful, then we probably will overlap even with some short-lived ET societies, before they self-destruct.
I don’t remember what Dr Tartar assumed here in the 2002 analysis for the value of L. But obviously, L and fc (the number of techno-civilizations in the galaxy) have to play off each other to get to N (the Drake estimate of communicating civilizations in the galaxy). But in other papers I’ve read, it seems that any L less than 10,000 years gives you very pessimistic estimates: a very low probability that any communicating civilization would overlap with humans in the entire galaxy at the present time. L has to be upwards of 100,000 or even a million years before the probabilities look encouraging. Another reason for wondering if anyone is really out there transmitting.
However, plenty of RF noise makers around planet Earth, at least for now.
DHQ
9 May, 2008 at 1:31 am
Dennis Quine
Re: Owen’s question regarding what the oldest transmitting life forms might be. V’s image of life evolving in waves is not far off current theory.
The current image of the evolution of the universe (subject to change!) is that it all stared in the Big Bang about 13.7 B years ago. The creation event generated mostly hydrogen and helium, with only a smattering of elements of higher atomic number.
The larger nuclear species (carbon, oxygen, nitrogen, etc.) needed for life as we know it (emphasis) are created in stellar explosions (supernova). So the first generation of stars that formed the first galaxies that began about 1-2 billion year after the Big Bang, had no heavy elements that could have yielded life. That first generation had to go through their life cycle (a few billion years) and explode spewing out the heavier elements needed for life.
Then a second generation of stars could form, and there would be both H and He in the gas/dust clouds, and also the heavier elements made by the explosions of the first generation supernovas. Pretty convoluted, but best guess is that it was several billion years after the BB before the necessary materials were available to make organic life.
Then it takes several billion years (based on planet earth history) before higher forms of life can evolve in planetary systems where the lower forms of life can get started.
So how long after the BB before we could have intelligent biologicals somewhere? Maybe 5-8 billion years. The solar system looks like it got started about 4.5 B years ago, so it might be composed of materials from the second generation of supernovas. We are potentially very late commers in the galaxy. There could be some very old societies out there. Or they could all be “come and gone”.
DHQ
9 May, 2008 at 9:59 am
vulcanis
I think we need to be careful about comparing how life evolved on this planet (a topic that modern science is still relatively ignorant of) to that which evolves elsewhere. Of course, we need to have a starting point from which to base estimates, but I believe the speed of evolution and length of civilisation on other planets could be very different to what we think.
Evolutionary pressures combined with random genetic fluctuation probably played a large part in the emergence of our species. There are also the variables involved with the formation of Earth, and in turn, the solar system. As DHQ mentioned, our collection of planetary bodies is relatively old in the history of the cosmos, formed from a second generation of exploding stars (making our own star Sol part of the relatively young Population I group). Older stars from Population II contained an intermediate amount of heavy metals, thus indicating that life could have been possible earlier in the life-cycle of the Universe (heavier elements are essential for life as we know it).
Not to mention the differing environmental influences on the development of life. Would a more competitive environment (perhaps one where two or more intelligent species coexisted) result in a faster growth of life? I suppose it would be quite a delicate balance whereby ultra-competitive environments would be just as detrimental to life as banal environments.
Thanks all for the great discussion thus far.
9 May, 2008 at 1:41 pm
Dennis Quine
V:
When you look at the convoluted, fortuitous path to get to us (multiple generations of supernovas, asteroids impacts, competition with Neaderthalers, social accidents like the discovery of fire, etc., makes you appreciate “and on the sixth day God created…”. Simplify stuff a little.
All that science blows your mind.
Take care,
DHQ
8 June, 2009 at 2:59 am
Brian K
Firstly I’d like to say that I am hopeful that there are other technologically advanced species out there, but I have a question. What if we are just a freak accident? It seems that the events that led to our development as sentient life-forms are outrageously unlikely. It seems that even if events were close, they still wouldn’t quite add up. Suppose events on some planet were extremely similar to Earth, but all the life-forms which developed were plant-like and never evolved to have cephalization? Isn’t it possible that we take for granted that all life-forms would evolve increased mental abilities as the best method of survival? Even if life exists more abundantly than is speculated, it is possible that we are the nerds of the cosmos with our brain-over-brawn evolutionary pattern. All the other dominant life-forms could simply be monstrously strong or so well adapted to their environment that they have no competition, putting them in a communist-like state where, since they don’t need to compete, they don’t advance at all.
1 July, 2009 at 1:11 am
DQUINE
Brian:
You are the first sign of life on “JOTLAB” in a year. I don’t know what happened to Vulcanis; he’s the lifeblood of this site. Wish he would come back and get the discussion going again.
I’m inclined to agree with you. I think humans are alone in the universe. There is probably a lot of life out there (of the microbial variety) because it seems to be able to grow anywhere, hot springs, a mile under the ice in greenland, etc.
But intelligence? Why do we need to be so smart? We might be better adapted to surviving on planet earth if we weren’t so smart: more like the earlier hominids a couple of million years ago (e.g., Homo Erectus). The mutations that led to Cro Mangons may ultimately prove to result in an evolutionary dead end and the demise of the planetary ecology, as well as us.
SETI has found no indications of anyone out there. Only searching for 50 years, but it is a data point. I think we should continue looking, but the null hypothesis seems to be more confirmed every year that goes by without some indications on non-human intelligence in the universe.
We may be the smartest thing the universe has produced.
Not sure whether I’m proud or terminally depressed by that.
Hang in there
DHQ
1 July, 2009 at 4:12 am
vulcanis
Hi there,
Vulcanis here, still alive and well. Unfortunately the trappings of postgraduate study have eaten up alot of my previously spare time. Juggling work, the purchase of my first home, practicum placements, coursework and thesis writing is proving to be a challenge! I will endeavour to start some more discussions in the near future.
It is depressing when one contemplates that we may truly be alone. However, the enormously vast timeframes involved with evolution and the age of the universe itself can act as a ‘reality kick to the head’ if required.
Quite possibly there have been countless intelligent civilisations out there that have come to rise and pass all within the relatively short span of a few million years. Our tiny chronological footprint stamps almost no bearing upon the universe, in the grand scheme of things.
Hyper-advanced civilisations could have existed at the same time as the neanderthals – transcending this existence and heading towards the next just as we were taking our first baby steps towards ‘humanness’. In the same vein, a tiny blue spot millions of light years away could just now be evolving towards multicellular life, coming to the ‘intelligent’ phase just as we are nearing the end of our species’ existence.
Like ships passing in the dead of the night, perhaps there are/have been other civilisations out there, but cosmic circumstance has thus far, prevented us from connecting.
Talk more soon,
Vulcanis
2 July, 2009 at 7:52 pm
DQUINE
V:
Nice to see you are alive and well. I’m starting a Master’s Degree myself first of September. Be my 3d. But to get in position to apply for a PHD I thought I needed an intermediate step. Been 25 years since I finished my 2nd Masters.
Did you go back in Psych?
Your observation about ships passing in the night rings true. Several people have modeled the SETI contact probabilities for coexistent civilizations depending on assumptions about the mean inter-civilization distances, and the longevity term (L) in Drake’s Equation.
Turns out with the limited reach of our current listening systems (Arecebo, Allen Telescope), that you could have an L over a 100 thousand years and still not detect each other. And our L (duration of a technological civilization able to communicate electronically) is about 100 years so far. Argument SETI researchers make to keep at it.
But I wonder who will fund that work after we descend into the New Dark Age abyss?
Anyway,
Good to hear from you.
DHQ